Sunday, April 4, 2010

162K New Jobs in March

That's a great thing! Looks like Obama's policies are working. At this pace we'll be singing Kumbuya in gatherings around the country within 6 months. All the questions of macroeconomics have now been solved. Just throw government money out there, borrow trillions, tax all the Joe the Plumbers out there (but don't you dare tax me), and never get discouraged even after 15 months and several million newly unemployed persons.

The next 2 months should be even better since only 48K new government Census jobs were created, which is comparatively low at this point from a historical standpoint. The 123K new private sector jobs appeared with 48K temp workers, 27K in healthcare, 17K in manufacturing, 15K in construction. Heck, even mining gained 8K jobs.

I suspect we will get a steady-state like this for the rest of the year in terms of job gains after the Census hiring in April and May, and subsequent firing in June, comes and goes. The unemployment rate will probably go up as more unemployed people enter the labor force and are again counted in the rate. Towards the end of this year and into next year you'll probably see a downtrend again as new tax rates kick in, interest rates and borrowing costs go up, and healthcare compliance costs go up. The good news is that if employment does go up more than I expect we will likely have massive inflation or, if the Fed takes away the sugar too soon to head inflation off, a double dip recession. In the long term, all the borrowing will probably lead to a massive global depression if the foreign entities who are lending don't behave exactly as we hope and take low interest rates and cash in at just the "right times". But, in the long run we're all dead anyway right?

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